[tagwex]

The British Isles are to be battered by snowstorms and freezing temperatures next winter as first El Nino cycle for five years begins
- Ice cold winter forecast to hit country because of Pacific Ocean changes
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicting a 'moderate to strong' event
- Last time it happened in 2010 December was coldest in UK for 120 years, with temperatures averaging -1C .

Britain is set to be battered by fierce snowstorms and freezing temperatures that could affect food stocks next winter as the first El Nino cycle for five years kicks in.
An ice cold winter is forecast to hit the country because of changes in the Pacific Ocean which have a knock-on effect around the globe.
The announcement by Australian meteorologists of a new El Nino cycle gave rise to fears global food prices for basics like meat and bread could be hit.

Food stocks could also be put under pressure because trade winds that circulate over waters in the tropical Pacific start to weaken causing sea surface temperatures to rise.
In 2010 the UK was swept by snow, ice and freezing temperatures the last time the phenomenon occurred.
The average temperature in December was the coldest in 120 years at -1C, while central England recorded its second coldest end-of-year month since the 17th century.
The last El Nino five years ago had a major impact with monsoons in Southeast Asia, droughts in southern Australia, the Philippines and Ecuador, blizzards in the United States, heatwaves in Brazil and killer floods in Mexico.
David Jones from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's climate information services branch said: 'There's always a little bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a whole we'd suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Nino event.
'Certainly the models aren't predicting a weak event. They are predicting a moderate-to-strong El Nino event. So this is a proper El Nino event, this is not a weak one or a near miss as we saw last year.'
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said the biggest fallout from the event will be damage to crops.
He said: 'The latest forecasts suggest that at least a moderate event is likely and there is a risk of a substantial event.
'We continue to see weak El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific.
'Predicting how this El Nino might develop is currently tricky because predictability is lowest at this time of year.

'However our climate forecasts show at least a continuation of El Nino conditions for the next few months.'
'It can have a huge impact on the Indian monsoon affecting crops and global prices of everything from coffee to the collapse of eastern fisheries.
'El Nino can cause breaks in the monsoon and drought while in eastern Australia there is a bigger risk of it being drier and warmer.
'The Peruvian fish industry can be devastated as the change in coastal wind direction prevents nutrient rich water rising leading to huge losses.'
He said it is too early to say definitively whether the UK would see a colder than average winter this year although did not rule it out.

He said: 'There is a small increase in the risk of a colder than average winter this year.
'It is usually the end of winter which is affected, it is important to point out that the impact varies from event to event.'
The Japan Meteorological Agency also confirmed the phenomenon had begun and forecast it would continue into late 2015.
This year's pattern could create drier conditions in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and parts of Southeast Asia.
In the past it has caused heavier-than-normal rainfall in the eastern Pacific and South America - raising the spectre of floods and landslides, while the southwest United States and southern Africa tend to be drier.
An El Nino is potentially a bad sign for large swathes of Australia, including the states of Queensland and New South Wales, which are already in the grip of severe drought.

[Greengage]

Yawn call me when I have to worry. Dont think Ill buy green bananas just in case.

[medieval knievel]

i have consulted the tea leaves and have concluded that next winter will be cold, with a near 100% chance of sub zero temperatures occurring at some point over the season. leaves will fall from the trees, and many birds will flee our country due to the cold.

[tagwex]

And what do the coffee grounds tell you? Have you both forgotten how bad 2010 was, we were snowed in for almost 3 weeks.

[medieval knievel]

[tagwex]

El nino runs on a five year cycle more or less.

[Greengage]

I myself run 24/7 365 days per year, Last Sunday crossing the wicklow gap I ws listening to the weather forecast they were talking about sunshine in the east with rain moving North in the late afternoon. It was Pissin rain at 9.30am could they not just look out the window, or are they relying on computer predictions all the time..
and dont get me started on AA road watch they are always hours out of date. by the time they report accidents or long delays.

[Sue Deacon]

While not denying El Nino and La Nina, between them, cause trouble somewhere in the world. I'd have more faith in the weather predictions if the Met Office was not involved.

They predicted a 'milder than usual' winter in 2010. A colder than usual winter last year. A dry winter 2013-14 (the people of Somerset might argue with that) and who could forget the 'Barbeque Summer' of a couple of years back?

I think the Met Office should scrap their computers and go back to pine cones and seaweed.

[kindredspirit]

I can give you an accurate forecast for Aruba for ANY day this year, if you like.
It will be between 80° and 82° (I don't understand Centigrade), there will be a constant NE wind at 20 mph (I don't understand kilometres). It will rain at 4pm and the ground will be dry at 4.30pm. It will get dark at 6pm.

but no-one can generally forecast more than 3 days ahead here (unless there's a blocking high) because we're on the divide of two climatic zones, the boundary of which doesn't stay constant. There are,of course, known effects of El Nino but so many variables come into play by the time the effects reach here that no-one can forecast for certain what they'll be in 8 months' time.